The End of the Trump Era?

Grover Cleveland, who served as America’s 22nd and 24th president, has a few things in common with Donald Trump. Like Trump, Cleveland—although related to the founder of Cleveland, Ohio—hailed from New York State. Like Trump, Cleveland was fat. Nicknamed “Uncle Jumbo,” and clocking in at a svelte 275 pounds, he’s been dubbed America’s least healthy president. (Trump is in the bottom half; Barack Obama rates second best). Like Trump, Cleveland abused women, and slandered them—including Maria Halpin, who likely bore his illegitimate son.

But there are differences, too. Cleveland was a reformer with a reputation for fiscal probity. He loathed tariffs. And, in perhaps the most un-Trumpian career choice ever, he briefly worked as a teacher of the blind.

Why compare the two men? Because Cleveland is the only president to have lost his bid for reelection (in 1888) and come back to win the presidency (in 1892). And until last week, Trump appeared to have a shot at replicating that achievement. Just before New Year’s, CNN’s Harry Enten noted that Trump enjoyed more support in his party than any defeated presidential nominee since the dawn of public opinion polling. “Until proven otherwise,” Enten concluded,” Trump should be considered the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination for president.”

Last week’s events probably changed that. They mean that the end of the Trump presidency will likely also end the Trump era. Start with the GOP’s defeat in Georgia. In the Peach State (also known as the Goober State), Trump probably cost his party its Senate majority. By refusing to concede, he denied Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue—both goobers in my book—their best argument for reelection: That they would be a bulwark against unified Democratic control. Trump’s insistence that the election was rigged also depressed Republican turnout. His selfishness is not news. But the Georgia results will sow new doubt among GOP politicians about whether it’s in their interest to have him leading their party.

If last week sullied Trump’s reputation as a winner, it also cost him some of his public voice. After the assault on the Capitol, he’s been banned permanently from Twitter, and, for the time being, from Facebook and Instagram. Trump will find new ways of communicating, likely on conservative social media sites. But Twitter—where the president boasted almost 89 million followers—allowed him to reach not only his supporters, but much of the media, which often treated his rantings as news. In ten days, Trump will become far less newsworthy—not only because he will no longer be president, but because he will be absent from the social media platform where journalists spend much of their time.

Since last week’s rampage, the Republican Party’s business wing has also signaled that it will fight a Trump comeback. The editorial page of Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal, not exactly a profile in courage over the last four years, has now called on Trump to resign, as has the National Association of Manufacturers. Several major corporations, including Marriott and BlueCross BlueShield, have said they will not donate to Republicans who voted to challenge the electors. And three Republican Senators who opposed impeaching Trump last year—Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse and Pat Toomey—have suggested they might support such an effort now.

Trump retains his visceral connection to many in the GOP base. But according to Morning Consult, the percentage of Republican voters who “strongly approve” of his job performance is down ten points since last week. And at least some hard-core Trumpists feel betrayed that he didn’t unambiguously endorse their mob attack.

After four years under Trump’s malevolent dominion, the Republican Party is headed for a vicious internal fight. Republicans like Lindsey Graham who didn’t challenge the electors are being harassed by Trump supporters in airports. Republicans who did, like Josh Hawley, are being repudiated by their donors. Trump is threatening to back primary challengers to Republicans he considers disloyal, like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and South Dakota Senator John Thune, in 2018.

It’s possible Trump will win this coming civil war, but I doubt it. He led a personality cult that attracted many people who had not previously been involved in the Republican Party. Now that he’s no longer president, I suspect many of them will drift away from the party. The poor turnout by Trump’s base in the Georgia Senate race suggests that’s already happening.

Second, the cold war with China will increasingly dominate American politics in the years to come. (We’ll be lucky if it stays cold. There’s a real risk of war over Taiwan). China—a non-white, non-Christian, nominally communist, foe that can be blamed for America’s economic woes—constitutes an almost perfect enemy for the GOP. Bashing Beijing will help the party’s hawkish elites rebuild their ties to the party’s nationalistic, evangelical base. By putting China at the heart of their campaigns, 2020 contenders like Tom Cotton, Nikki Haley and Marco Rubio (the first line of whose Twitter feed is: “Banned in & sanctioned by China”) may be able to forge the kind of connection with grassroots conservatives that John McCain and Mitt Romney could not. I suspect China will make it easier for the GOP to unite around a more mainstream alternative to Trump, who might be relegated to running as a Ross Perot or Pat Buchanan-style third party candidate.

The end of the Trump era won’t mean the end of white supremacist politics, nor the end of conspiracy-minded demagoguery. Before Trump there was Joe McCarthy, George Wallace, Pat Buchanan and the Tea Party. Others in that tradition will follow. As Trump fades as a political force, some of his more extreme devotees—aided by elements in the military and law enforcement—could even turn to guerrilla war. Almost a decade ago, Barack Obama predicted that if Republicans lost the presidential election in 2012, the party’s “fever” would break. But the fever hasn’t broken, and probably won’t, because the fear that underlies it—the fear that white, male, Christian rule is being overthrown, not only in the US, but around the world—is only likely to grow. A Tom Cotton presidency would still be an extremely frightening affair.

Nonetheless, the Trump era is likely over. And although it won’t solve America’s many daunting problems, seeing Trump disempowered, marginalized, reviled, ridiculed, and hopefully, bankrupted and jailed, is lot better than seeing him become the next Grover Cleveland. Given how much this country has suffered, we need to take our comforts where we can.

Other stuff:

It came out a while ago, but this FiveThirtyEight story about the breed of dog Georgia Senate candidate Raphael Warnock featured in his campaign ads says a lot about the deep structure of race and politics in the US.

A fascinating and disturbing article about how in China, a brutally authoritarian state, people are enjoying some of the freedoms people in the US lack—because China’s government has responded to COVID-19 more effectively than America’s.

This story, about a distinguished Indian historian under government assault, could, with a few tweaks, have been set in Israel, Hungary, Poland, Brazil or even the US. It’s about the clash between the pursuit of truth and nationalist mythology.

A strangely compelling response to the attack on the Capitol by, of all people, Arnold Schwarzenegger.

This Friday at Noon EST, we’ll host a Zoom call for paid subscribers with Princeton historian Joshua Freeman, one of the world’s greatest authorities on the Uighurs of western China, who are being forced into concentration camps in one of this era’s greatest crimes. Here’s a haunting op-ed Joshua wrote about the disappeared poets whose work he’s translated. As always, we’ll send out a reminder with the link on Wednesday.

Hope to see you Friday,

Peter

* Three incorrect links have been changed.