Hey subscribers to The Beinart Notebook: We’re doing another live thread at Noon EST on Friday. Here’s my question: What is Trump’s most dangerous foreign policy legacy? Some contenders: His evisceration of the Iran nuclear deal, which puts war back on the table? His new cold war with China, which could turn hot over Taiwan? His support for tyrants who destroy the rule of law? Burying the two state solution? Going backwards on climate change? Tell me what you’re thinking.
To join the discussion thread, hit “Like and Comment” below. Share your thoughts or ask me a question. You can access the thread at any time; I’ll be on at Noon on Friday to join in.
It's 1 PM EST so I'm going to sign off. Thanks so much to all of you who took part. We're going to keep doing this in future though we may tinker with the format. Would love any feedback.
Yes, but Rice has already run NSC and the reporting suggests Biden wants Blinken there. Biden may also worry about abandoning Rice and having an overwhelmingly white foreign policy team. So some might encourage him to have that fight. Would be really interesting to know what James Clyburn thinks
Will be interesting to see if Biden chooses Rice because it means he's willing to pick a right with the Republicans, who (unfairly, in my view) hold the Benghazi affair against her. Will be a test of how combative he's willing to be
Please help me identify Diaspora Palestinian organizations - in Canada and I believe elsewhere Palestinians seem to be connected to Muslim (or Christian) or Arab organizations - not "Palestinian". I live in Toronto, Canada.
Lot of talk about Chris Coons, who isn't one of the more progressive Democratic senators on foreign policy. Some progressives prefer Chris Murphy, but he seems like a longer shot.
Irene said one of the worst things Trump did was suck up to dictators. Worth remembering that some of those dictators (or at least authoritarians) liked being sucked up to. Obama had trouble with Duterte because he objected to Duterte's murderous anti-drug efforts while he also trying to woo the Philipines away from China. Bolsonaro is going to be a really hard relationship for Biden. And, in all these case, these autocrats have China as another benefactor/partner, which makes it easier for them tell Biden to jump in the lake
I like it - more carrots than sticks. And I agree with you about celebrating the benefits to Israel while ignoring the consequences for their neighbours - and citizens, the Palestinians. My frustration is finding partners for constructive shared efforts to move both sides toward the negotiating table - what are viable carrots for that situation? Sadly the Palestinians lack any Diaspora organizations that mirror the Jewish community - even though we are divided in our opinions.
Joel took me to task for saying that Trump had "buried" the two state solution. And he's probably right. Historians are more likely to say it died under Obama, perhaps when the Kerry effort failed. They will also note that Obama (unlike George H.W. Bush) never imposed any costs on Israel for rejecting America's diplomatic push.
Barbara, I do think it's worth thinking out of the box in exactly those ways. US leaders keep condemning China's "Belt and Road" initiatives. But a lot of countries want that investment and an America with a trilliion dollar deficit can't compete. So why not, instead of demanding (unsuccessfully) that countries eschew Chinese investment, instead try to reach agreements in which we help China make that investment more green (no more building coal plants, for instance).
Thinking out of the box - what if we tried on the premise that China is now the leader and acknowledged our approval of policies that we agree with - efforts to combat climate change, investing in economically poor countries, encouraging education, and offered a more welcoming seat at the table with EU countries and the US - could we use offering RESPECT for China's advancements in return for specific concessions on human rights? What would China fear about such concessions - what would it stand to lose? Just trying to rethink...
I want to take a shot at the comments Brian made a while back about Republican Jews boasting about how great Trump was for Israel. At one level it's hard to refute because most Israeli Jews like Trump a lot. (Most Palestinian citizens/Arab Israelis definitely don't). But it depends on your long term goal and your values. If you believe that Israel can crush the Palestinians, deny them basic rights and rule over them indefinitely under those circumstances, then sure, Trump has helped Israel do that. But I think sooner or later the Palestinian Authority is going to collapse, which will force Israel to reckon with the real costs of controlling millions of people who lack basic rights. if another intifada breaks out, the UAE and Bahrain won't be able to stop it. And I just don't think it's logical to believe that people will submit indefinitely while living without basic rights under a brutal occupation. (If you don't think it's brutal, just spend a day with Palestinians in the W Bank). So, in the long-term, Trump's role in killing the two state solution (or ensuring it stays buried) will come back to haunt Israelis, I fear.
I would agree near-term that sharp shifts from Asian countries are likely to be met with reprisals from China... but i think my “methodically” adverb should be read to say that “yeah, it’s gonna take decades, in the same way dealing with the Soviet Union was the key foreign policy issue for 40+ years & the US was able to do it without a shooting war.”
And the attraction of the US to many Asian countries is that we don’t have maps written to grab territory.
Plus, Europe traded a bunch with the old USSR (gas, machine tools, etc).
Yeah David but one difference is that W Europe wasn't dependent on the USSR economically in the way so many Asian (and not just-Asian) countries are economically dependent on China. They may want the US to play a balancing role but except maybe in a country like Vietnam which is strongly anti-China, I think most countries will be afraid of joining the US in efforts that lead to Chinese economic reprisals
The challenge of US policy in Asia is to methodically build (or rebuild post-Trump) alliances around China... much like the European alliance of the last 20th century. Shared prosperity + national self-determination (e.g. Vietnam & smaller countries)/shared values (e.g. Australia, Japan).
Sticking with Charles. It is significant that Trump has been war-avoidant. He's happy to drop bombs on other places but he's sensitive to US casualties. I think Biden will be too. He was opposed to the Afghan surge and the Libya war and even the Bin Laden raid. But I do worry that if Israel/Saudi/theRepublicans make it impossible to rebuild the Iran deal and Iran keeps enriching uranium that the prospect of war with Iran could return, if not an American war then perhaps an Israeli attack
Charles asks a good question about US alliances. I do worry sometimes that because Trump was pro-Putin and anti-NATO, Democrats are moving unthinkingly in the other direction. Sure, those Western European alliances are important because of the shared liberal democratic values. And yes, Putin has definitely tried to sow chaos and encourage authoritarianism. But I'd like to see a greater introspection in the US about our history of meddling in other countries' elections (including, very blatantly, in Yeltsin's victory in 1996--something Russians probably remember better than Americans). Maybe we need some kind of new global pact about electoral non-interference--that the US binds itself too. (Granted, there are difficult gray areas--like some of the work Natl Democratic Institute does). Also worth remembering that the US needs to work with Russia--on a potential deal in Syria, on a new deal with Iran, to try to ensure that Afghanistan doesn't completely fall apart as the US troops withdraw. Even on Ukraine, the US can't defeat Russia military in its backyard
Canada followed the "If we engage as FRIENDS, they will like us and follow our democratic ways - I don't see that. The trajectory has been toward illiberalism, life-time dictators and repression.
I like the idea of welcoming immigration - Canada is doing that for Hong Kong to some extent- but there must be ways to offer some rewards the US and EU can offer in return for cooperation and human rights. Not sure what that would look like given that China has become a much more sophisticated economic power house and has made many countries dependent on its investment.
One of the consequences of trump's idiosyncrasies is that he hasn't yet started any new wars - despite being a fundamentally violent person. He really might have started one in Korea in late 2017 / early 2018 if smart diplomatic action by North and South Korea had not taken that option away from him. We (and, of course, the people of northeast Asia more so) are very lucky in that regard. Biden's past behavior has not demonstrated the quirky avoidance of war that Trump has.
On McConnell, maybe an optimistic scenario is that Biden could work with Collins and Romney and pressure McConnell that way. But the problem is that even Biden can get the votes for something, how does he make McConnell even hold a vote?
Max asks about US policy on Hong Kong and Xianjing. This is something I think about a lot, and don't have good answers on. What China is doing is horrific in both places. But the US has very little influence. It's very hard to change the domestic policies of a powerful country which you can't isolate internationally. One thing the US can definitely do is open its doors to people who want to come here. That would be morally right and good for the US. I'm not against targeted sanctions but we have to ask whether we think they would have any likelihood of success. It's possible that a policy of greater engagement with China might help to ease some of the anti-Western nationalism that silences the voices of those in China who might otherwise oppose their government's brutality. I don't think the US media emphasizes enough how China's history as the victim of Western imperialism influences the way political debates play out there
I am in fact older than Peter & we were friends in high shcool...and I’m not normally known for my optimism. But the competition for influence/soft power is shifting to green stuff. It’s not my dumbest idea.
While I hate the “McConnell will block everything” deus ex machina retort, sadly, i have zero ability to refute it.
In Canada we have a similar issue with Alberta - they argue that "Why us?" We can supply 'good oil' and meet current demands and besides we only account for a drop in the bucket of pollution. What I don't see is a real national strategy to re-train and stimulate alternative jobs. Until there is a serious and visible effort to reassure people that they will have work, small self-interest will resist climate change 'targets' and act out of fear.
I agree Barbara. If McConnell blocks ambitious efforts on climate then Biden can do some stuff by executive order (i'm not an expert here). But that could be challenged in (unfriendly) courts. Conservatives will go crazy about the abuse of power. And that stuff could be repealed. The core problem is that Obama kept saying if Republicans lost, the "fever" would break and we'd get Eisenhower types again. So far, that's not the dynamic. I fear that the demographic change in the US is pushing Republicans into more extreme, illiberal and irrational directions
my old friend David offers the optimistic scenario that we can have a kind of post-sputnik, nationalist, competition in which we show the Chinese that we can de-carbonize first. I really hope so. But I do think we'd make more progress if there was cooperation between China and the US. I also fear that large swaths of the US still doesn't see "winning" the race away from fossil fuels as a win. And so it will be really hard for Biden to get McConnell to go along with an ambitious green stimulus.
Unless Biden has control of the Senate - Mitch McConnell will tie Biden's hands and the dis-information about the election being 'stolen' from the Republicans will make it difficult to move forward on climate change as essential as that is. The combination of COVID + Climate change will feed the Republican's claim that Biden is "Bad for business". What is the best strategy to address this scenario?
I think PB’s question on China dodges the way Europe works... very very unanimous... If Poland and Hungary back each other up & are savvy on how they cooperate with Europe on what Europe wants (on, say Brexit, or Russia policy), then it will be very hard for the EU/good Europeans to push back hard against PiS & Fidesz.
Exhibernian asks really interesting question about Iran: Why didn't they respond as aggressively as many Trump critics expected after the Soleimani assassination? I can only speculate. Maybe they tried in some ways and failed? Maybe they were smart enough to realize that the assassination was turning Iraqis against US presence and smart play was to lay low and wait for US influence in Iraq (and Afghanistan) to recede. I also think Americans don't think about the way weaker countries frankly appease the US because the US is so much stronger. Iran may just not have wanted to give Trump and Bibi an excuse for an all out war
I am oddly optimistic on climate b-c the current trend seems to be of countries announcing they’re going to be carbon-neutral FIRST. EU has led, but both China & Japan have made pledges recently.
If Biden can summon some 1950s/60s Cold War competitive spirit to show “dem dirty commies” and the rest of the world that we’re better at ... de-carbonising, then the world is in a better place. It’s a healthier outlet than building bigger missiles or going to the moon. And that competitive anti-China spirit might (while I’m dreaming here...) bring some GOP’ers on board.
Goran makes the point that Trump empowered nationalists/authoritarians/fascists in Europe. Certainly here Biden will be far better. But I fear that his efforts will have limited effect unless he--and leaders like Merkel and Macron--can find ways of addressing the domestic discontents that are fueling this illiberal nationalism. One interesting test case will be on Hungary and Poland. Can Biden empower the EU to put more pressure on them? Or, given the potential support they can get from China, is that impossible?
Question about Iran: why did they not respond more robustly to the assassination of Soleimani? Was it “strategery” or just lack of opportunity/selecting the appropriate target?
To respond to Liz, you can see the way the cold war posture with China may undermine climate progress when you read a lot of the writing of Biden's advisors. They mention climate cooperation but it's not what they emphasize vis China. What they emphasize is building alliances that can push back against China geopolitically and on trade. What I fear is that given how bad the US-China relationship has gotten, trying to pursue a tough on China policy and trying to seriously coordinate a US-China led effort on climate will be in conflict. And I don't think progressives had adequately recognized that danger that climate takes second fiddle in Biden's policy
So glad to see how many of you commenting. I'm going to offer some general thoughts in response and then we can go back and forth about whatever you want. I agree that climate is number one. As Obama said, even the neo-fascist parties in Europe generally recognize climate is a problem. The Republican Party is a global outlier in catastrophic ways. And, sadly, Trump wasn't repudiated decisively enough to change that. The silver lining is that other countries are still pushing forward. Striking that China, a much poorer country than the US, just announced very ambitious climate goals. For number two I'd suggest the US relationship with China, which I think has become extremely dangerous. First, I don't think the US media is conveying how dangerous things have gotten vis Taiwan as the US has violated various elements of the agreement struck in the 1970s. China is becoming more brutal and more authoritarian and more ambitious but Trump's reckless policies on trade and open cold war posture are also inflaming Chinese nationalism in ways that I think make war significantly more likely. And I just don't think many Americans realize how much the military balance has tipped in China's favor regarding Taiwan. I also think the cold war climate is a long-term threat to any hopes of a resurgent progressivism in the US because it will make it impossible to cut defense spending, re-empower the national security state and have terrible implications for Chinese-Americans. Ok, back over to you.
Talk of whatever you like, Peter... , probably the most urgent is climate change dialogue ...Israel should be one democratic state, ( ODS ), a topic which will simmer while the earth shimmers and shivers at the same time. An interesting discussion on Iran would be valuable. We were there right before 2016 elections. Most Iranians used to love the US, and everyone we talked to said if Trump was elected, the hardline in Iran would prevail, if Hillary....the humanists would rejoice ...and there were lots of a Bernie supporters... who knows what goes on now?
Over the next few years, we're going to hear from the republican Jewish community just how wonderful Trump was for Israel.
One question to ask is were these pro-Israel policies that many American Jews liked worth the sacraficing, trampling on, and destruction of American values.
I'd also like to hear arguments, for and against, for some of these policies. For example, what is the downside of establishing Israeli ties with Sudan, UAE, and Bahrain. On the surface, it seems like a good thing. Same thing for the Iran Deal, the moving of the embassy to Jerusalem, and the recognition of the Golan Heights.
Until we address climate change nothing else matters. Peter please get someone to talk about nuclear! Small Thorium molten salt reactors. Everyone’s behind wind and solar but they won’t cut it for the amount of electric power we need now and we’re gonna need in the future . At least we have to build prototypes immediately!
A view from across the Atlantic; the inspiration to European populists to use the Trumpian means of shameless demagoguery to whip up nationalist and xenophobic movements of fear and resentment. The success of political shamelessness (Trump got 70+ million votes and Trumpism will stay) is a dangerous political export. A Biden administration must try to forge and strengthen an alliance with the remaining democratic forces of Europe.
I would say #1 is the lack of coordinating a global effort to respond to Covid 19 followed closely by the double withdrawal from the Paris climate accords and the Iran nuclear agreements.
The damage that Trump has done is endless. The most damaging impact is transforming the US into a transactional state when it comes to foreign relations and global problems. His America first and foremost and only meant that the US could no longer stand for values critical to a democracy and could never be an honest broker for conflict resolution. A bully has no friends and no alliances that could be trusted. Trump doesn't believe in global alliances, global institutions and agreements. He prefers negotiating with world leaders one on one to extract maximum fealty or economic deals that favored the US especially his constituents but no one else. Trump loves power especially the power of tyrants and dictators to rule over not rule for their citizens. Trump is a would-be dictator of the most powerful democracy on earth. Elections for Trump are just staged shows for manipulation as they are for dictators who make sure they always win by substantial margins. Dictators understand Trump and know how to manipulate him to garner favors. Erdogan and Un prime examples. Putin mastered Trump going back before Trump ran for President.
Biden will reverse the worst of Trump, however, never again will other countries trust that we are not capable of cannibalizing our Democracy through internal divisions and diametrically opposed versions of reality. Witness our response to COVID 19 pandemic. Worst performance by a major democratic country. Not ready to lead the world except for pandemic deaths -we're NO.1.
the underminig of the value of and faith in democracy, elections, rights of people to determine their own government. this is his worst legacy inside the country and it is mirrored in his foreign policy. we went from a perhaps over the top great american exceptionalism to a message that we dont believe in our own story so why should others.
It's been informative -- thank you all!
THANKS ALL!!
It's 1 PM EST so I'm going to sign off. Thanks so much to all of you who took part. We're going to keep doing this in future though we may tinker with the format. Would love any feedback.
Yes, but Rice has already run NSC and the reporting suggests Biden wants Blinken there. Biden may also worry about abandoning Rice and having an overwhelmingly white foreign policy team. So some might encourage him to have that fight. Would be really interesting to know what James Clyburn thinks
Is THAT a battle you really wanna pick? NSC head arguably has more power?
And McConnell could just let that hearing die on the vine.
I think you meant Fight vs Right - Everything will be a fight I am afraid:(
Yes, Biden must choose his fights wisely.
Will be interesting to see if Biden chooses Rice because it means he's willing to pick a right with the Republicans, who (unfairly, in my view) hold the Benghazi affair against her. Will be a test of how combative he's willing to be
Please help me identify Diaspora Palestinian organizations - in Canada and I believe elsewhere Palestinians seem to be connected to Muslim (or Christian) or Arab organizations - not "Palestinian". I live in Toronto, Canada.
How about Susan Rice for Sec of State?
Lot of talk about Chris Coons, who isn't one of the more progressive Democratic senators on foreign policy. Some progressives prefer Chris Murphy, but he seems like a longer shot.
Ten minutes left. Anyone have any dream candidates for secretary of state?
A discussion for another time,
Irene said one of the worst things Trump did was suck up to dictators. Worth remembering that some of those dictators (or at least authoritarians) liked being sucked up to. Obama had trouble with Duterte because he objected to Duterte's murderous anti-drug efforts while he also trying to woo the Philipines away from China. Bolsonaro is going to be a really hard relationship for Biden. And, in all these case, these autocrats have China as another benefactor/partner, which makes it easier for them tell Biden to jump in the lake
The Palestinians have many organizations, just aren’t highlighted in the media
I like it - more carrots than sticks. And I agree with you about celebrating the benefits to Israel while ignoring the consequences for their neighbours - and citizens, the Palestinians. My frustration is finding partners for constructive shared efforts to move both sides toward the negotiating table - what are viable carrots for that situation? Sadly the Palestinians lack any Diaspora organizations that mirror the Jewish community - even though we are divided in our opinions.
Joel took me to task for saying that Trump had "buried" the two state solution. And he's probably right. Historians are more likely to say it died under Obama, perhaps when the Kerry effort failed. They will also note that Obama (unlike George H.W. Bush) never imposed any costs on Israel for rejecting America's diplomatic push.
Barbara, I do think it's worth thinking out of the box in exactly those ways. US leaders keep condemning China's "Belt and Road" initiatives. But a lot of countries want that investment and an America with a trilliion dollar deficit can't compete. So why not, instead of demanding (unsuccessfully) that countries eschew Chinese investment, instead try to reach agreements in which we help China make that investment more green (no more building coal plants, for instance).
Thinking out of the box - what if we tried on the premise that China is now the leader and acknowledged our approval of policies that we agree with - efforts to combat climate change, investing in economically poor countries, encouraging education, and offered a more welcoming seat at the table with EU countries and the US - could we use offering RESPECT for China's advancements in return for specific concessions on human rights? What would China fear about such concessions - what would it stand to lose? Just trying to rethink...
I want to take a shot at the comments Brian made a while back about Republican Jews boasting about how great Trump was for Israel. At one level it's hard to refute because most Israeli Jews like Trump a lot. (Most Palestinian citizens/Arab Israelis definitely don't). But it depends on your long term goal and your values. If you believe that Israel can crush the Palestinians, deny them basic rights and rule over them indefinitely under those circumstances, then sure, Trump has helped Israel do that. But I think sooner or later the Palestinian Authority is going to collapse, which will force Israel to reckon with the real costs of controlling millions of people who lack basic rights. if another intifada breaks out, the UAE and Bahrain won't be able to stop it. And I just don't think it's logical to believe that people will submit indefinitely while living without basic rights under a brutal occupation. (If you don't think it's brutal, just spend a day with Palestinians in the W Bank). So, in the long-term, Trump's role in killing the two state solution (or ensuring it stays buried) will come back to haunt Israelis, I fear.
I would agree near-term that sharp shifts from Asian countries are likely to be met with reprisals from China... but i think my “methodically” adverb should be read to say that “yeah, it’s gonna take decades, in the same way dealing with the Soviet Union was the key foreign policy issue for 40+ years & the US was able to do it without a shooting war.”
And the attraction of the US to many Asian countries is that we don’t have maps written to grab territory.
Plus, Europe traded a bunch with the old USSR (gas, machine tools, etc).
Yeah David but one difference is that W Europe wasn't dependent on the USSR economically in the way so many Asian (and not just-Asian) countries are economically dependent on China. They may want the US to play a balancing role but except maybe in a country like Vietnam which is strongly anti-China, I think most countries will be afraid of joining the US in efforts that lead to Chinese economic reprisals
The challenge of US policy in Asia is to methodically build (or rebuild post-Trump) alliances around China... much like the European alliance of the last 20th century. Shared prosperity + national self-determination (e.g. Vietnam & smaller countries)/shared values (e.g. Australia, Japan).
Sticking with Charles. It is significant that Trump has been war-avoidant. He's happy to drop bombs on other places but he's sensitive to US casualties. I think Biden will be too. He was opposed to the Afghan surge and the Libya war and even the Bin Laden raid. But I do worry that if Israel/Saudi/theRepublicans make it impossible to rebuild the Iran deal and Iran keeps enriching uranium that the prospect of war with Iran could return, if not an American war then perhaps an Israeli attack
Charles asks a good question about US alliances. I do worry sometimes that because Trump was pro-Putin and anti-NATO, Democrats are moving unthinkingly in the other direction. Sure, those Western European alliances are important because of the shared liberal democratic values. And yes, Putin has definitely tried to sow chaos and encourage authoritarianism. But I'd like to see a greater introspection in the US about our history of meddling in other countries' elections (including, very blatantly, in Yeltsin's victory in 1996--something Russians probably remember better than Americans). Maybe we need some kind of new global pact about electoral non-interference--that the US binds itself too. (Granted, there are difficult gray areas--like some of the work Natl Democratic Institute does). Also worth remembering that the US needs to work with Russia--on a potential deal in Syria, on a new deal with Iran, to try to ensure that Afghanistan doesn't completely fall apart as the US troops withdraw. Even on Ukraine, the US can't defeat Russia military in its backyard
Canada followed the "If we engage as FRIENDS, they will like us and follow our democratic ways - I don't see that. The trajectory has been toward illiberalism, life-time dictators and repression.
I like the idea of welcoming immigration - Canada is doing that for Hong Kong to some extent- but there must be ways to offer some rewards the US and EU can offer in return for cooperation and human rights. Not sure what that would look like given that China has become a much more sophisticated economic power house and has made many countries dependent on its investment.
One of the consequences of trump's idiosyncrasies is that he hasn't yet started any new wars - despite being a fundamentally violent person. He really might have started one in Korea in late 2017 / early 2018 if smart diplomatic action by North and South Korea had not taken that option away from him. We (and, of course, the people of northeast Asia more so) are very lucky in that regard. Biden's past behavior has not demonstrated the quirky avoidance of war that Trump has.
On McConnell, maybe an optimistic scenario is that Biden could work with Collins and Romney and pressure McConnell that way. But the problem is that even Biden can get the votes for something, how does he make McConnell even hold a vote?
Max asks about US policy on Hong Kong and Xianjing. This is something I think about a lot, and don't have good answers on. What China is doing is horrific in both places. But the US has very little influence. It's very hard to change the domestic policies of a powerful country which you can't isolate internationally. One thing the US can definitely do is open its doors to people who want to come here. That would be morally right and good for the US. I'm not against targeted sanctions but we have to ask whether we think they would have any likelihood of success. It's possible that a policy of greater engagement with China might help to ease some of the anti-Western nationalism that silences the voices of those in China who might otherwise oppose their government's brutality. I don't think the US media emphasizes enough how China's history as the victim of Western imperialism influences the way political debates play out there
I am in fact older than Peter & we were friends in high shcool...and I’m not normally known for my optimism. But the competition for influence/soft power is shifting to green stuff. It’s not my dumbest idea.
While I hate the “McConnell will block everything” deus ex machina retort, sadly, i have zero ability to refute it.
In Canada we have a similar issue with Alberta - they argue that "Why us?" We can supply 'good oil' and meet current demands and besides we only account for a drop in the bucket of pollution. What I don't see is a real national strategy to re-train and stimulate alternative jobs. Until there is a serious and visible effort to reassure people that they will have work, small self-interest will resist climate change 'targets' and act out of fear.
I agree Barbara. If McConnell blocks ambitious efforts on climate then Biden can do some stuff by executive order (i'm not an expert here). But that could be challenged in (unfriendly) courts. Conservatives will go crazy about the abuse of power. And that stuff could be repealed. The core problem is that Obama kept saying if Republicans lost, the "fever" would break and we'd get Eisenhower types again. So far, that's not the dynamic. I fear that the demographic change in the US is pushing Republicans into more extreme, illiberal and irrational directions
my old friend David offers the optimistic scenario that we can have a kind of post-sputnik, nationalist, competition in which we show the Chinese that we can de-carbonize first. I really hope so. But I do think we'd make more progress if there was cooperation between China and the US. I also fear that large swaths of the US still doesn't see "winning" the race away from fossil fuels as a win. And so it will be really hard for Biden to get McConnell to go along with an ambitious green stimulus.
Unless Biden has control of the Senate - Mitch McConnell will tie Biden's hands and the dis-information about the election being 'stolen' from the Republicans will make it difficult to move forward on climate change as essential as that is. The combination of COVID + Climate change will feed the Republican's claim that Biden is "Bad for business". What is the best strategy to address this scenario?
I think PB’s question on China dodges the way Europe works... very very unanimous... If Poland and Hungary back each other up & are savvy on how they cooperate with Europe on what Europe wants (on, say Brexit, or Russia policy), then it will be very hard for the EU/good Europeans to push back hard against PiS & Fidesz.
Exhibernian asks really interesting question about Iran: Why didn't they respond as aggressively as many Trump critics expected after the Soleimani assassination? I can only speculate. Maybe they tried in some ways and failed? Maybe they were smart enough to realize that the assassination was turning Iraqis against US presence and smart play was to lay low and wait for US influence in Iraq (and Afghanistan) to recede. I also think Americans don't think about the way weaker countries frankly appease the US because the US is so much stronger. Iran may just not have wanted to give Trump and Bibi an excuse for an all out war
Communist boogey men has always been a mistake
I am oddly optimistic on climate b-c the current trend seems to be of countries announcing they’re going to be carbon-neutral FIRST. EU has led, but both China & Japan have made pledges recently.
If Biden can summon some 1950s/60s Cold War competitive spirit to show “dem dirty commies” and the rest of the world that we’re better at ... de-carbonising, then the world is in a better place. It’s a healthier outlet than building bigger missiles or going to the moon. And that competitive anti-China spirit might (while I’m dreaming here...) bring some GOP’ers on board.
Goran makes the point that Trump empowered nationalists/authoritarians/fascists in Europe. Certainly here Biden will be far better. But I fear that his efforts will have limited effect unless he--and leaders like Merkel and Macron--can find ways of addressing the domestic discontents that are fueling this illiberal nationalism. One interesting test case will be on Hungary and Poland. Can Biden empower the EU to put more pressure on them? Or, given the potential support they can get from China, is that impossible?
Question about Iran: why did they not respond more robustly to the assassination of Soleimani? Was it “strategery” or just lack of opportunity/selecting the appropriate target?
To respond to Liz, you can see the way the cold war posture with China may undermine climate progress when you read a lot of the writing of Biden's advisors. They mention climate cooperation but it's not what they emphasize vis China. What they emphasize is building alliances that can push back against China geopolitically and on trade. What I fear is that given how bad the US-China relationship has gotten, trying to pursue a tough on China policy and trying to seriously coordinate a US-China led effort on climate will be in conflict. And I don't think progressives had adequately recognized that danger that climate takes second fiddle in Biden's policy
Do a riff on “ cold, war, climate “ All interchangeable!
So glad to see how many of you commenting. I'm going to offer some general thoughts in response and then we can go back and forth about whatever you want. I agree that climate is number one. As Obama said, even the neo-fascist parties in Europe generally recognize climate is a problem. The Republican Party is a global outlier in catastrophic ways. And, sadly, Trump wasn't repudiated decisively enough to change that. The silver lining is that other countries are still pushing forward. Striking that China, a much poorer country than the US, just announced very ambitious climate goals. For number two I'd suggest the US relationship with China, which I think has become extremely dangerous. First, I don't think the US media is conveying how dangerous things have gotten vis Taiwan as the US has violated various elements of the agreement struck in the 1970s. China is becoming more brutal and more authoritarian and more ambitious but Trump's reckless policies on trade and open cold war posture are also inflaming Chinese nationalism in ways that I think make war significantly more likely. And I just don't think many Americans realize how much the military balance has tipped in China's favor regarding Taiwan. I also think the cold war climate is a long-term threat to any hopes of a resurgent progressivism in the US because it will make it impossible to cut defense spending, re-empower the national security state and have terrible implications for Chinese-Americans. Ok, back over to you.
Talk of whatever you like, Peter... , probably the most urgent is climate change dialogue ...Israel should be one democratic state, ( ODS ), a topic which will simmer while the earth shimmers and shivers at the same time. An interesting discussion on Iran would be valuable. We were there right before 2016 elections. Most Iranians used to love the US, and everyone we talked to said if Trump was elected, the hardline in Iran would prevail, if Hillary....the humanists would rejoice ...and there were lots of a Bernie supporters... who knows what goes on now?
Over the next few years, we're going to hear from the republican Jewish community just how wonderful Trump was for Israel.
One question to ask is were these pro-Israel policies that many American Jews liked worth the sacraficing, trampling on, and destruction of American values.
I'd also like to hear arguments, for and against, for some of these policies. For example, what is the downside of establishing Israeli ties with Sudan, UAE, and Bahrain. On the surface, it seems like a good thing. Same thing for the Iran Deal, the moving of the embassy to Jerusalem, and the recognition of the Golan Heights.
Until we address climate change nothing else matters. Peter please get someone to talk about nuclear! Small Thorium molten salt reactors. Everyone’s behind wind and solar but they won’t cut it for the amount of electric power we need now and we’re gonna need in the future . At least we have to build prototypes immediately!
A view from across the Atlantic; the inspiration to European populists to use the Trumpian means of shameless demagoguery to whip up nationalist and xenophobic movements of fear and resentment. The success of political shamelessness (Trump got 70+ million votes and Trumpism will stay) is a dangerous political export. A Biden administration must try to forge and strengthen an alliance with the remaining democratic forces of Europe.
I would say #1 is the lack of coordinating a global effort to respond to Covid 19 followed closely by the double withdrawal from the Paris climate accords and the Iran nuclear agreements.
The Iran and China should be addressed first.
The damage that Trump has done is endless. The most damaging impact is transforming the US into a transactional state when it comes to foreign relations and global problems. His America first and foremost and only meant that the US could no longer stand for values critical to a democracy and could never be an honest broker for conflict resolution. A bully has no friends and no alliances that could be trusted. Trump doesn't believe in global alliances, global institutions and agreements. He prefers negotiating with world leaders one on one to extract maximum fealty or economic deals that favored the US especially his constituents but no one else. Trump loves power especially the power of tyrants and dictators to rule over not rule for their citizens. Trump is a would-be dictator of the most powerful democracy on earth. Elections for Trump are just staged shows for manipulation as they are for dictators who make sure they always win by substantial margins. Dictators understand Trump and know how to manipulate him to garner favors. Erdogan and Un prime examples. Putin mastered Trump going back before Trump ran for President.
Biden will reverse the worst of Trump, however, never again will other countries trust that we are not capable of cannibalizing our Democracy through internal divisions and diametrically opposed versions of reality. Witness our response to COVID 19 pandemic. Worst performance by a major democratic country. Not ready to lead the world except for pandemic deaths -we're NO.1.
the underminig of the value of and faith in democracy, elections, rights of people to determine their own government. this is his worst legacy inside the country and it is mirrored in his foreign policy. we went from a perhaps over the top great american exceptionalism to a message that we dont believe in our own story so why should others.