Welcome to my first discussion post for The Beinart Notebook. Between 10 and 11am Eastern, I will be online to participate in a discussion with newsletter subscribers. You can access the discussion now to leave a question, or join me starting from 10am. I hope to see many of you there.
hi consider this i come on Monday to claim the lotto wins with a ticket bought on Sunday for the day before Saturday draw. will they pay me? is Biden not doing the same?
Biden has shown socialistic signs bordering communist principle. he wants to tax high earning people who in tturn will pas the tax to the final consumers ie the lower class. interesting enough he will increase union powers and finally double minimum wage. tgat will cause people to loose their jobs
clearly something is not kosher out there.
this joke of making the election day ballots being wiped out by mail vote is just do bizaar. why don't you carry the entire election via internet or just by mail in the future. this will end the charade we are witnessing.
very worried what will happen in USA when a breeze start by you a storm ends on third world economies
Expanding on both #1 and #2, perhaps there are different directions that should be considered. 3 - Social media - and especially Twitter, but also Facebook, Instagram and TikTok - have allowed politicians (as well as nefarious governments and others) to communicate directly with the populace. And particularly to promote lies and disinformation. 4 - Examining the psychology of persuasive techniques (as was discussed below re: Sanders etc). Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame and now a Trumpist) wrote an important book after the last election - Winning Bigly which should have been required reading for Dem leaders - about how Trump is a "Master Persuader". Very interesting
I remember the article you wrote after the election four years ago when you said you've never felt "less American and more Jewish." How will you reflect on this outcome, assuming a Biden win? Even with a once-in-century pandemic and against a centrist candidate, Trump still managed to increase his own voter turnout over last time.
I hope Biden starts his Acceptance Speech by repeating that he is the President of ALL Americans - not a Democrat or a Republican. That he recognizes that there are many Trump supporters that are feeling disappointed and that he wants to reassure them that he hears their voices and will learn from their concerns. While their are many issues that divide Americans, and many who feel worried about their future there are many more reasons to feel proud of the values and spirit that built America. EVERYONE is needed and VALUED and together we are so much stronger - something like that!!
We're almost done so in the last few minutes if you have any suggestions for how to do this next time, please let me know. Or email me. Still getting the hang of this but enjoying it!
I'd like the discussion to have more unity. I felt like you did a great job of responding to every question. Still I felt like it was a private interchange with you with a bunch of other questions happening at the same time. Maybe that's what you wanted.
Given the rise of single-vote ultra orthodox and right wing, and the diminished power of the left in Israel, coupled with a well organized plan of de facto annexation, things look bleak. Peter, your plan of a single state or binational state would bring a Palestinian presence to counter the right wing. While the PA is corrupt and ineffective, the Joint List is at least the equal of other Israeli political parties. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible in the present political climate. Thoughts?
Seems to me that change will come when the PA stops serving as Israel's subcontractor in the West Bank. It makes the occupation much easier for Israeli leaders. It's also the opposite of the ANC/UDF's strategy in South Africa in the 1980s, which was to raise the costs of controlling the townships by dismantling the institutions of collaboration. That said, such a strategy was immensely costly for Black South Africans, and would be for Palestinians.
Speaking of somewhat-contrived political lines drawn around ostensibly distinct groups...one half-formed thought has been bouncing around my head for a while: if Biden wins, how might some of the thinking a younger Joe Biden demonstrated years ago in his foreign policy ideas manifest itself closer to home? I'm thinking specifically of his plan (first mentioned in 2003, and officially suggested in 2006) to split Iraq into three states along ethno-religious lines. Biden was quick to propose withdrawing from Iraq and segregating it into self-governing regions of Sunni, Shia, and Kurds. Also Biden is a longtime supporter of a two-state solution in Israel/Palestine. He has demonstrated an inclination to partition countries thousands of miles away...how do you think this could (or should) inform his domestic policy in a nation clearly divided along geographic AND ideological lines?
Yeah, Biden is consistent. He supported partition in both Israel-Palestine and Iraq! But I think Biden's view of the US is completely different of his view of a place like Iraq. He believes that our tribal divisions can be overcome. And he feels that his friendship with Republicans in the Senate show it's possible. But that was in a very different era
There's reporting he'll go with Chris Coons, who would have more senate support rather than Susan Rice, who Republicans would oppose. The dynamic makes it easier for him to choose more hawkish people who will offend Republicans less. I've also heard people suggest he should make Collins Sec State to get that seat but hard to imagine that working
Larry Grossman emails about the importance of Fox and it's true. The polling shows a real divide between Republicans who watch Fox and those who consume other news. The question is whether Fox is the symptom or the disease. If they moderated would another network like Sinclair just take their place. Not hard to imagine Trump creating one, especially since he won't forgive Fox for calling Arizona for biden
I think he'll talk about unity. those are his instincts and the results reinforce them. He'll invest heavily in his relationship with McConnell. But I'm pessimistic it will work
I guess the question is what leverage do they have? Back in the 1990s they got Jim Jeffords to become a Democrat if I remember correctly. I do wonder if there's anything they can offer Collins to switch, though she may be too bitter now. There's also unlikely chance Dems could win both Senate runoffs in Georgia
I agree but think the Trump support is more multi-faceted. A thick soup of 1. Feeling like outsiders, disrespected and distrustful. 2. Evangelists whose faith leaders say vote Trump (like the Haredi community that says vote Bibi. 3. Tax-phobics. 4. Anti-Abortion. 5. The Supreme Court. 6. Economically disadvantaged and fearful of losing working class jobs. 7. True believers of the Trump rock star. 8. White supremacists and anti-immigration. 9. The electoral system that is 'gamed' by the part in power...and more - if we look to pigeon hole we will miss that this is more deep seated and will need some real mastery by Biden to respond in a way that breaks down some of these very difficult barriers. Barbara Landau
Excellent point, Barbara. We see simplistic analysis that pins the problem on one or several of the variables you identified. It will take a complex and nuanced strategy as well as realization we're in this for the long haul. I wish climate change was not an existential threat.
Yes, and Biden is caught in a really tough situation: He needs McConnell to get laws through the senate but McConnell has every incentive to undermine him. And he has a restive, desperate progressive base that doesn't totally trust him and is demanding big change.
Do you think, assuming R control of the Senate, that McConnell will slow walk Biden's nominees for judicial positions, and will Biden respond without drawing lines in the sand as Obama did?
Seems like McConnell cares about the judiciary more than everything so I fear he'll really play hardball on this. At least try to make sure that Biden chooses someone centrist if Breyer retires
Traditionally the way you pressure Senators is by turning their constituents against them. But that's hard given that most Republicans represent red states. You'd think Biden would have leverage over Collins at least since he won Maine, but given that she just won reelection even that is sadly hard to see
I'm thinking that if the judicial nomination process comes to standstill as it did in the Obama administration, bringing government to a standstill should be on the table.
Responding to your kick-off post: both seem to be true in a way to me, but I certainly find #1 more convincing, and think perhaps that it exacerbates the effect of #2. It's abundantly clear that #1 is true in the abstract, that the system is deeply undemocratic in ways that have come to favor Republicans, both because of increased urban/rural polarization within our political system (Electoral College, 2 Senators per state) and because of deliberate Republican efforts to maintain permanent minority rule (voter suppression, gerrymandering, etc.). Within a system in which Democrats have to win in gerrymandered districts to win the House, and win in states that lean more Republican than the median voter to win the presidency/Senate, of course they're going to have disappointing margins. But all of that might reinforce #2. Abigail Spanberger (who narrowly won reelection after flipping a heavily Republican district formerly held by Eric Cantor in 2018) reportedly said on a House Democratic Caucus call yesterday that attack ads accusing her of wanting to defund the police nearly cost her her seat. If that's true, it seems to support argument #2. That said, if Democrats didn't need to win districts as red as Spanberger's to hold majorities, would any of this really matter? If the average swing district looked more like the average swing voter, this all might not matter as much. Thoughts?
To put it another way, how do Democrats try to change the system when the very act of trying to change the system makes them look radical and makes it harder to win in the system as it exists.
By arguing for 'democracy', always for democracy, and for equality, always for equality, and recognising explicitly that democracy and equality are completely non-partisan. Which means recognising that sometimes Democrats will lose the democratic vote, the vote as expressed by a nation of equal people, and that will be fine - because that is what democracy means. In other words, taking on the cynicism which says 'you are only out for yourselves' and you only want to change the system so you can win, and saying - No, we want to change the system so we all win, we all feel it is fairer and treats all of us equally and with respect.
I’ll put in my two cents. I know that it is ironic, but I believe in retrospect that Trump actually benefited from the pandemic. I know that it sounds weird, but I believe that pandemic fatigue is extremely widespread as is magical thinking. Trump denied the severity of Covid and disputed the numbers, while Biden reinforced the reality of the spread of the virus. People who did not want to hear this — despite its truth — voted for Trump. This is not to say that Biden should have done anything different.
The exit polling on the pandemic is fascinating. And I agree--I think there's a group of people who, as on climate change, fear the cure so much that they'd prefer to believe the disease isn't real. Sorry for making you get up so early on the west coast!
Well, I think it is a very large group. It’s interesting how quite a number of the states with recent outbursts of Covid (some of these from super spreading and people going maskless) are the states with Trump taking a wide lead. I know this could be just parallel reasons (Republican states where people wear fewer masks). You might have thought [going Talmudic here] that the increase in infections would have been an exposure of the baselessness of Trump’s magical thinking, but I think that it resulted in
There are really interesting questions here about fatalism and the way people approach questions of life and death. Maybe not surprising that in both evangelical and haredi communities you're seeing similar kinds of responses.
It's interesting, David. I was traveling through n Gunnison, Colorado. A shop keeper wasn't wearing a mask. I confronted him, and his response was there was no need to worry (he used the word "fear") because it was all in God's plan. Was there cognitive dissonance beneath the surface? Hard to tell...
There is another possibility, which is a sort of subset of argument 1. Trump clearly taps into deeply held fears and resentments on the part of many poor and working class people who feel looked down on and excluded by a metropolitan intelligentsia. He knows how to 'communicate' in a simplistic and populist fashion that enables people who are deprived and looked down upon to feel included and respected. We on the left, and I use 'left' in a very broad way to include Democrats generally, mostly lack those communication skills. I reckon Sanders has them, and I saw the speech of the new black representative in Missouri, which also displayed such skills brilliantly - but mostly we dont know how to make a complex point simple, to answer a simple lie equally simply, and to make 'ordinary' angry people feel respected and involved. As most politics is complex, and most of the issues we are talking about are nuanced and multi-layered, the 'system', insofar as it concerns 'communications' is inevitably stacked against us. So what can we do to shift the way we hold debate and to respond with respect to views we know to be based on lies etc.... Asking this question from London, England, where we have a similar (if less crude) problem.
If only I knew the answer. I don't know about in UK but it is important to remember that Trump actually lost voters earning under $100K and won them earning over $100K. The class divide that causes Dems problems is less about income than education. It would be nice to believe it's only a matter of style but Biden is hardly a Berkeley anthropology professor. I'm afraid that there are deep-seeded fears of the loss of white hegemony and as long as the Dems remain a party where Blacks have a voice, that makes the party threatening for many whites, especially when Black Americans are, rightly, demanding change
I agree with the point about education. Certainly here in Britain, the shift of working class votes relates clearly to deprivation, including exclusion from educational opportunities. Not surprising really - if you havent got education in a world where it is no longer completely inaccessible, you are seen, and see yourself as 'thick'. And plenty of people on the left make it clear that's how they see the poor and the working class who are on the right. I am not aiming to look backwards or arguing 'what if', but it did seem to me that Sanders knew how to talk inclusively and in an unthreatening way - and he really wanted to communicate with the wretched of the earth. A bit like our late politician, Tony Benn, who came from an upper class, though left background, and structured all his communication so that it could be understood by anyone. I wish the left generally could learn from these people
Gershon Baskin had a recent commentary in the Jerusalem Post, stating that several in senior Palestinians have contacted him about possibly restarting negotiations possibly with impetus from the UAE. "I am now receiving phone calls from senior Palestinians requesting to organize discreet meetings with senior Israeli officials and those with influence with the aim of renewing the dialogue in the search for a path towards a new vision for a shared future. Some of these people believe that it might still be possible to save the two-state solution. Others suggest that we try to find common principles and views for a different political paradigm. What they all have in common is the possibility that they may become part of the Palestinian leadership in the post-Abbas era, which is in the not very distant future." Given defacto annexation, perhaps I'm grasping for any hopeful sign, but with a Biden victory, do you see possibility here?
It's really interesting, especially when you think of the potential role of Mahmoud Dahlan in the succession fight, who is reportedly very close to leaders of UAE. The harsh reality is that since the PA is Israel's subcontractor as well as its sometime adversary, the next leader needs to stay on decent terms with Israeli government. But I can't see how a Palestinian leadership could ever really accept a peace deal consisting of an archipelago of towns and villages under Israeli control.
Agreed. And Gershon got stopped in his car, and the driver punched him in the face, likely because of his earlier commentary calling Netanyahu the Crime Minister. Let me turn the prism on your statement about the Palestinians. Would the Israelis be willing to give up East Jerusalem and the settlements away from the Green Line in a peace deal?
Hard to see Israel giving up E Jerusalem absent a really massive political shift. Polling shows that even Israel Jews who support 2 states don't support a Palestinian capital in E Jerusalem and Israel's building has been severing Palestinian E Jerusalem from the West Bank. So hard to see where that political leadership would come from
Okay, a pessimistic outlook is more than justified. Point taken. But just for the sake of hope, if this turned into a strategic alliance against Iran, with Saudi Arabia as a major player, perhaps that would give Israel incentive for significant compromise.
Reposting my kick-off post for those who missed it: The debate that will dominate politics for years to come is why Trump lost but Trumpism didn’t. Why, after all this horror, weren’t Republicans vanquished up and down the line. There are two competing arguments: 1) The problem is the system: Which favors Republicans in deeply undemocratic ways. 2) The problem is the people: Who get scared when Democrats move too far left. I’m a bit more inclined to #1 but can’t totally dismiss #2. What do you think?
Yes, it's early but given that Republicans likely kept senate, gained in House and are now in a position to dominate redistricting again, I fear this isn't enough to spark fundamental reassessment. And they still fear Trump.
I think the two are actually closely related and worked in tandem. The system is in undemocratic but also somewhat designed to resist and recoil from large change. So as some people became frightened at dem move towards the left, it triggered the undemocratic aspects of the system in its role of resisting change.
Right and this election makes the problem worse because the more the system doesn't respond, the more radical progressives become. I think there's going to be lot more talk now of structural problems with the Senate and Electoral College, which will lead Republicans to say Dems are assaulting Constitution
I agree, Peter. In the Colorado 3rd, for example, 215,000 Colradans gave Lauren Boebert, Hard-Right Gun Activist and Qanon supporter, an easy victory over a strong Democratic challenger Diane Mitsch Bush. We are in for a long haul...
Fascinating to look at what's happening in Poland, where severe abortion restrictions have produced a mass revolt and challenge to the church. I think as a matter of pure political strategy, smart Republicans fear that the closer we move toward an abortion ban the more they'll suffer a political backlash. Though maybe that's too optimistic.
Unfortunately I think that women globally will have to go on a mass strike of all our roles to achieve an equality shift. It does not appear that those with structural power are going to shift to equality without a huge push. We'll be talking about equality for girls and women for centuries otherwise.
There are some questions about the accuracy of exit polls, especially given the mail-in ballots. And Hispanics are particularly difficult to poll, as I understand it. For instance, Spanish speakers may respond less than English speakers. So some danger of putting too much weight on that narrative. But there is evidence that there was a backlash, especially in Florida, among some Hispanics to Black Lives Matter. It's an old problem, really--immigrant groups not showing solidarity with Blacks. Reminds me of the defection of Italians and other white ethnics from Democrats in wake of protests in late 60s
From my understanding, overwhelmingly black and brown folks turned out to the polls in record numbers and voted overwhelmingly for Biden. So although Trump may have had some gains with people of the color, the gains don't compare with the gains in getting people of color to the polls despite decades of voter intimidation and voter suppression in this country and the votes that went to Biden.
Yes, that's an important point. interesting how the arc of coverage has shifted already from Tue night when people talking about Hispanic shift in FL and TX to now, when everyone is rightly hailing Stacy Abrams and the effort of Black voters in Georgia. But Republicans deeply invested in narrative that they're gaining among people of color and among Cubans, it really does seem true
I am a mere Brit, but I thought most of the Florida Hispanics were Cuban emigres, so especially unlikely to vote for the more 'left' of the two Presidential candidates, even if the more left one wouldn't be seen as 'left' in any other circumstances!
Hi Peter, I would love to hear your thoughts on how we can aggressively combat the all the disinformation out there—disinformation that convinced half this country to re-elect a sadistic con man. I am already hearing criticism of the Democratic Party for not doing what was necessary to fully repudiate Trumpism. But, unless we can stop the GOP from utilizing the same authoritarian tactics that Trump has been using, we won’t be able to fix our broken system.
I do think it's a good sign that Facebook and Twitter began putting warnings on some of Trump's posts. They're moving in the right direction. So much depends on Fox. Really striking how their news desk is trying to play it straight while Hannity etc parrot the worst of Trump. Seems almost like a brewing civil war in there. Wonder how Murdoch responds
Perhaps when Murdoch is gone, and his son or sons take over, they will come up with a different way to be profitable. I’m hoping when Trump is no longer the president, the deleting of his lies will be even more aggressively pursued.
The debate that will dominate politics for years to come is why Trump lost but Trumpism didn’t. Why, after all this horror, weren’t Republicans vanquished up and down the line. There are two competing arguments: 1) The problem is the system: Which favors Republicans in deeply undemocratic ways. 2) The problem is the people: Who get scared when Democrats move too far left. I’m a bit more inclined to #1 but can’t totally dismiss #2. What do you think?
It is both. Anyone who watches Fox News is being fed propaganda and alternative reality. Perception is reality and being fed lies you become the consummate consumer of mis-information. TV has a way of capturing the eyeballs and where they go the primal brain follows. Many adults don't have a independent critical facility to resist the sales pitch and false narrative. I call Trump the "Merchant of Menace". See article in the Atlantic about Andy Griffith playing Lonesome Rhodes in "Face in the Crowd". This is Trump's story line except when Lonesome voiced his distain for his followers on an open mike his star plummeted. Trump can do the same with no consequence ( other than losing his re-election) but still garnering 70 million votes in the midst of a Pandemic which his incompetence and selfishness exacerbated. Trump did shoot someone on 5th Avenue and he did lose votes perhaps but gained votes to sure. Biden doesn't have to repeat Dukakis's frustration "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy" but he can't be too happy that so many of the voters still thought Trump was the better candidate.
Biden will try to mend fences with the Palestinian leadership but I wouldn't expect any real pressure on Netanyahu because Biden will cash in all his chips trying to get Bibi to swallow a return to the Iran deal. In other words, I think Bibi will be able to continue to kill the two state solution with impunity, sadly
Peter: Looking forward to your comments. Who would chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee if Senator Coons goes to the State Dept? And who replaces Eliot Engel as Chair of House Foreign Relations Committee? Mitchell
Assuming Republicans retain Senate, I think Idaho's JIm Risch remains chairman. In race to succeed Engel, I'd guess Brad Sherman has the lead. Like Engel he's an AIPAC guy. But interestingly, he's more dovish than some other Dems on China
So glad you're doing this, Peter. I've got deadlines that take priority ... and I look forward to hearing/reading your take on election results, particularly trends in voting in Jewish and Muslim communities.
Super interested to learn more about how significant the Muslim vote was in Michigan. Striking to see exit polling showing that Jews in Florida (who are older and I suspect more orthodox) broke much more for Trump than Jews overall. Would love to see numbers on the Latin Jews in Florida.
hi consider this i come on Monday to claim the lotto wins with a ticket bought on Sunday for the day before Saturday draw. will they pay me? is Biden not doing the same?
Biden has shown socialistic signs bordering communist principle. he wants to tax high earning people who in tturn will pas the tax to the final consumers ie the lower class. interesting enough he will increase union powers and finally double minimum wage. tgat will cause people to loose their jobs
clearly something is not kosher out there.
this joke of making the election day ballots being wiped out by mail vote is just do bizaar. why don't you carry the entire election via internet or just by mail in the future. this will end the charade we are witnessing.
very worried what will happen in USA when a breeze start by you a storm ends on third world economies
Expanding on both #1 and #2, perhaps there are different directions that should be considered. 3 - Social media - and especially Twitter, but also Facebook, Instagram and TikTok - have allowed politicians (as well as nefarious governments and others) to communicate directly with the populace. And particularly to promote lies and disinformation. 4 - Examining the psychology of persuasive techniques (as was discussed below re: Sanders etc). Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame and now a Trumpist) wrote an important book after the last election - Winning Bigly which should have been required reading for Dem leaders - about how Trump is a "Master Persuader". Very interesting
Signing off for now. Thank you so much to everyone who took part. Keep an eye out for the next one, probably next week
Interesting discussion, Peter!
I remember the article you wrote after the election four years ago when you said you've never felt "less American and more Jewish." How will you reflect on this outcome, assuming a Biden win? Even with a once-in-century pandemic and against a centrist candidate, Trump still managed to increase his own voter turnout over last time.
I would love this to be a webinar - see each other on Zoom... great beginning!!
yes, maybe we'll try something on Zoom. Thank you all for coming!
I hope Biden starts his Acceptance Speech by repeating that he is the President of ALL Americans - not a Democrat or a Republican. That he recognizes that there are many Trump supporters that are feeling disappointed and that he wants to reassure them that he hears their voices and will learn from their concerns. While their are many issues that divide Americans, and many who feel worried about their future there are many more reasons to feel proud of the values and spirit that built America. EVERYONE is needed and VALUED and together we are so much stronger - something like that!!
We're almost done so in the last few minutes if you have any suggestions for how to do this next time, please let me know. Or email me. Still getting the hang of this but enjoying it!
I'd like the discussion to have more unity. I felt like you did a great job of responding to every question. Still I felt like it was a private interchange with you with a bunch of other questions happening at the same time. Maybe that's what you wanted.
Given the rise of single-vote ultra orthodox and right wing, and the diminished power of the left in Israel, coupled with a well organized plan of de facto annexation, things look bleak. Peter, your plan of a single state or binational state would bring a Palestinian presence to counter the right wing. While the PA is corrupt and ineffective, the Joint List is at least the equal of other Israeli political parties. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible in the present political climate. Thoughts?
Seems to me that change will come when the PA stops serving as Israel's subcontractor in the West Bank. It makes the occupation much easier for Israeli leaders. It's also the opposite of the ANC/UDF's strategy in South Africa in the 1980s, which was to raise the costs of controlling the townships by dismantling the institutions of collaboration. That said, such a strategy was immensely costly for Black South Africans, and would be for Palestinians.
Speaking of somewhat-contrived political lines drawn around ostensibly distinct groups...one half-formed thought has been bouncing around my head for a while: if Biden wins, how might some of the thinking a younger Joe Biden demonstrated years ago in his foreign policy ideas manifest itself closer to home? I'm thinking specifically of his plan (first mentioned in 2003, and officially suggested in 2006) to split Iraq into three states along ethno-religious lines. Biden was quick to propose withdrawing from Iraq and segregating it into self-governing regions of Sunni, Shia, and Kurds. Also Biden is a longtime supporter of a two-state solution in Israel/Palestine. He has demonstrated an inclination to partition countries thousands of miles away...how do you think this could (or should) inform his domestic policy in a nation clearly divided along geographic AND ideological lines?
Yeah, Biden is consistent. He supported partition in both Israel-Palestine and Iraq! But I think Biden's view of the US is completely different of his view of a place like Iraq. He believes that our tribal divisions can be overcome. And he feels that his friendship with Republicans in the Senate show it's possible. But that was in a very different era
Try Hilary!
Who do you think Biden could be able to get through to be Secretary of State?
There's reporting he'll go with Chris Coons, who would have more senate support rather than Susan Rice, who Republicans would oppose. The dynamic makes it easier for him to choose more hawkish people who will offend Republicans less. I've also heard people suggest he should make Collins Sec State to get that seat but hard to imagine that working
hello, fellow Jonah K!
Larry Grossman emails about the importance of Fox and it's true. The polling shows a real divide between Republicans who watch Fox and those who consume other news. The question is whether Fox is the symptom or the disease. If they moderated would another network like Sinclair just take their place. Not hard to imagine Trump creating one, especially since he won't forgive Fox for calling Arizona for biden
In fact, if Trump loses, that's likely what he will do. There's money to be made and power to be accrued.
If you were Biden's Acceptance Speech writer (inshallah) what would you say? I found myself writing the speech instead of sleeping!
Send us the speech, Barbara! mglustrom@outlook.com
I think he'll talk about unity. those are his instincts and the results reinforce them. He'll invest heavily in his relationship with McConnell. But I'm pessimistic it will work
Any chance that people around him (Harris) convince him to try to battle McConnell rather than compromising? Would that even work in practice?
I guess the question is what leverage do they have? Back in the 1990s they got Jim Jeffords to become a Democrat if I remember correctly. I do wonder if there's anything they can offer Collins to switch, though she may be too bitter now. There's also unlikely chance Dems could win both Senate runoffs in Georgia
I agree but think the Trump support is more multi-faceted. A thick soup of 1. Feeling like outsiders, disrespected and distrustful. 2. Evangelists whose faith leaders say vote Trump (like the Haredi community that says vote Bibi. 3. Tax-phobics. 4. Anti-Abortion. 5. The Supreme Court. 6. Economically disadvantaged and fearful of losing working class jobs. 7. True believers of the Trump rock star. 8. White supremacists and anti-immigration. 9. The electoral system that is 'gamed' by the part in power...and more - if we look to pigeon hole we will miss that this is more deep seated and will need some real mastery by Biden to respond in a way that breaks down some of these very difficult barriers. Barbara Landau
Excellent point, Barbara. We see simplistic analysis that pins the problem on one or several of the variables you identified. It will take a complex and nuanced strategy as well as realization we're in this for the long haul. I wish climate change was not an existential threat.
Yes, and Biden is caught in a really tough situation: He needs McConnell to get laws through the senate but McConnell has every incentive to undermine him. And he has a restive, desperate progressive base that doesn't totally trust him and is demanding big change.
Do you think, assuming R control of the Senate, that McConnell will slow walk Biden's nominees for judicial positions, and will Biden respond without drawing lines in the sand as Obama did?
Seems like McConnell cares about the judiciary more than everything so I fear he'll really play hardball on this. At least try to make sure that Biden chooses someone centrist if Breyer retires
Yes, but does Biden have options that are also hard ball?
Traditionally the way you pressure Senators is by turning their constituents against them. But that's hard given that most Republicans represent red states. You'd think Biden would have leverage over Collins at least since he won Maine, but given that she just won reelection even that is sadly hard to see
I'm thinking that if the judicial nomination process comes to standstill as it did in the Obama administration, bringing government to a standstill should be on the table.
Congratulations on your move to the Times, Peter.
Thanks!
Responding to your kick-off post: both seem to be true in a way to me, but I certainly find #1 more convincing, and think perhaps that it exacerbates the effect of #2. It's abundantly clear that #1 is true in the abstract, that the system is deeply undemocratic in ways that have come to favor Republicans, both because of increased urban/rural polarization within our political system (Electoral College, 2 Senators per state) and because of deliberate Republican efforts to maintain permanent minority rule (voter suppression, gerrymandering, etc.). Within a system in which Democrats have to win in gerrymandered districts to win the House, and win in states that lean more Republican than the median voter to win the presidency/Senate, of course they're going to have disappointing margins. But all of that might reinforce #2. Abigail Spanberger (who narrowly won reelection after flipping a heavily Republican district formerly held by Eric Cantor in 2018) reportedly said on a House Democratic Caucus call yesterday that attack ads accusing her of wanting to defund the police nearly cost her her seat. If that's true, it seems to support argument #2. That said, if Democrats didn't need to win districts as red as Spanberger's to hold majorities, would any of this really matter? If the average swing district looked more like the average swing voter, this all might not matter as much. Thoughts?
To put it another way, how do Democrats try to change the system when the very act of trying to change the system makes them look radical and makes it harder to win in the system as it exists.
By arguing for 'democracy', always for democracy, and for equality, always for equality, and recognising explicitly that democracy and equality are completely non-partisan. Which means recognising that sometimes Democrats will lose the democratic vote, the vote as expressed by a nation of equal people, and that will be fine - because that is what democracy means. In other words, taking on the cynicism which says 'you are only out for yourselves' and you only want to change the system so you can win, and saying - No, we want to change the system so we all win, we all feel it is fairer and treats all of us equally and with respect.
I’ll put in my two cents. I know that it is ironic, but I believe in retrospect that Trump actually benefited from the pandemic. I know that it sounds weird, but I believe that pandemic fatigue is extremely widespread as is magical thinking. Trump denied the severity of Covid and disputed the numbers, while Biden reinforced the reality of the spread of the virus. People who did not want to hear this — despite its truth — voted for Trump. This is not to say that Biden should have done anything different.
The exit polling on the pandemic is fascinating. And I agree--I think there's a group of people who, as on climate change, fear the cure so much that they'd prefer to believe the disease isn't real. Sorry for making you get up so early on the west coast!
Well, I think it is a very large group. It’s interesting how quite a number of the states with recent outbursts of Covid (some of these from super spreading and people going maskless) are the states with Trump taking a wide lead. I know this could be just parallel reasons (Republican states where people wear fewer masks). You might have thought [going Talmudic here] that the increase in infections would have been an exposure of the baselessness of Trump’s magical thinking, but I think that it resulted in
There are really interesting questions here about fatalism and the way people approach questions of life and death. Maybe not surprising that in both evangelical and haredi communities you're seeing similar kinds of responses.
(I hit reply - I meant to end on “cognitive dissonance.”
It's interesting, David. I was traveling through n Gunnison, Colorado. A shop keeper wasn't wearing a mask. I confronted him, and his response was there was no need to worry (he used the word "fear") because it was all in God's plan. Was there cognitive dissonance beneath the surface? Hard to tell...
There is another possibility, which is a sort of subset of argument 1. Trump clearly taps into deeply held fears and resentments on the part of many poor and working class people who feel looked down on and excluded by a metropolitan intelligentsia. He knows how to 'communicate' in a simplistic and populist fashion that enables people who are deprived and looked down upon to feel included and respected. We on the left, and I use 'left' in a very broad way to include Democrats generally, mostly lack those communication skills. I reckon Sanders has them, and I saw the speech of the new black representative in Missouri, which also displayed such skills brilliantly - but mostly we dont know how to make a complex point simple, to answer a simple lie equally simply, and to make 'ordinary' angry people feel respected and involved. As most politics is complex, and most of the issues we are talking about are nuanced and multi-layered, the 'system', insofar as it concerns 'communications' is inevitably stacked against us. So what can we do to shift the way we hold debate and to respond with respect to views we know to be based on lies etc.... Asking this question from London, England, where we have a similar (if less crude) problem.
If only I knew the answer. I don't know about in UK but it is important to remember that Trump actually lost voters earning under $100K and won them earning over $100K. The class divide that causes Dems problems is less about income than education. It would be nice to believe it's only a matter of style but Biden is hardly a Berkeley anthropology professor. I'm afraid that there are deep-seeded fears of the loss of white hegemony and as long as the Dems remain a party where Blacks have a voice, that makes the party threatening for many whites, especially when Black Americans are, rightly, demanding change
I agree with the point about education. Certainly here in Britain, the shift of working class votes relates clearly to deprivation, including exclusion from educational opportunities. Not surprising really - if you havent got education in a world where it is no longer completely inaccessible, you are seen, and see yourself as 'thick'. And plenty of people on the left make it clear that's how they see the poor and the working class who are on the right. I am not aiming to look backwards or arguing 'what if', but it did seem to me that Sanders knew how to talk inclusively and in an unthreatening way - and he really wanted to communicate with the wretched of the earth. A bit like our late politician, Tony Benn, who came from an upper class, though left background, and structured all his communication so that it could be understood by anyone. I wish the left generally could learn from these people
Is this a written discussion or is this a webinar format? I can only see the written comments Barbara Landau (in Canada - you are all WELCOME!!)
written discussion. Great to "see" you Barbara
Gershon Baskin had a recent commentary in the Jerusalem Post, stating that several in senior Palestinians have contacted him about possibly restarting negotiations possibly with impetus from the UAE. "I am now receiving phone calls from senior Palestinians requesting to organize discreet meetings with senior Israeli officials and those with influence with the aim of renewing the dialogue in the search for a path towards a new vision for a shared future. Some of these people believe that it might still be possible to save the two-state solution. Others suggest that we try to find common principles and views for a different political paradigm. What they all have in common is the possibility that they may become part of the Palestinian leadership in the post-Abbas era, which is in the not very distant future." Given defacto annexation, perhaps I'm grasping for any hopeful sign, but with a Biden victory, do you see possibility here?
It's really interesting, especially when you think of the potential role of Mahmoud Dahlan in the succession fight, who is reportedly very close to leaders of UAE. The harsh reality is that since the PA is Israel's subcontractor as well as its sometime adversary, the next leader needs to stay on decent terms with Israeli government. But I can't see how a Palestinian leadership could ever really accept a peace deal consisting of an archipelago of towns and villages under Israeli control.
Agreed. And Gershon got stopped in his car, and the driver punched him in the face, likely because of his earlier commentary calling Netanyahu the Crime Minister. Let me turn the prism on your statement about the Palestinians. Would the Israelis be willing to give up East Jerusalem and the settlements away from the Green Line in a peace deal?
Hard to see Israel giving up E Jerusalem absent a really massive political shift. Polling shows that even Israel Jews who support 2 states don't support a Palestinian capital in E Jerusalem and Israel's building has been severing Palestinian E Jerusalem from the West Bank. So hard to see where that political leadership would come from
Okay, a pessimistic outlook is more than justified. Point taken. But just for the sake of hope, if this turned into a strategic alliance against Iran, with Saudi Arabia as a major player, perhaps that would give Israel incentive for significant compromise.
Reposting my kick-off post for those who missed it: The debate that will dominate politics for years to come is why Trump lost but Trumpism didn’t. Why, after all this horror, weren’t Republicans vanquished up and down the line. There are two competing arguments: 1) The problem is the system: Which favors Republicans in deeply undemocratic ways. 2) The problem is the people: Who get scared when Democrats move too far left. I’m a bit more inclined to #1 but can’t totally dismiss #2. What do you think?
Isn't it too early to say that Trumpism didn’t lose? Just because Republicans weren't vanquished?
Yes, it's early but given that Republicans likely kept senate, gained in House and are now in a position to dominate redistricting again, I fear this isn't enough to spark fundamental reassessment. And they still fear Trump.
I think the two are actually closely related and worked in tandem. The system is in undemocratic but also somewhat designed to resist and recoil from large change. So as some people became frightened at dem move towards the left, it triggered the undemocratic aspects of the system in its role of resisting change.
Right and this election makes the problem worse because the more the system doesn't respond, the more radical progressives become. I think there's going to be lot more talk now of structural problems with the Senate and Electoral College, which will lead Republicans to say Dems are assaulting Constitution
I agree, Peter. In the Colorado 3rd, for example, 215,000 Colradans gave Lauren Boebert, Hard-Right Gun Activist and Qanon supporter, an easy victory over a strong Democratic challenger Diane Mitsch Bush. We are in for a long haul...
Particularly striking given how easily Biden and Hickenlooper won there
Exactly. Rural Colorado (away from the mountains) is a lot like rural Kansas. The rural-urban split does not follow state boundaries.
What role do you think feminists will have in moving the US forward after the Trump misogynistic years?
Fascinating to look at what's happening in Poland, where severe abortion restrictions have produced a mass revolt and challenge to the church. I think as a matter of pure political strategy, smart Republicans fear that the closer we move toward an abortion ban the more they'll suffer a political backlash. Though maybe that's too optimistic.
Unfortunately I think that women globally will have to go on a mass strike of all our roles to achieve an equality shift. It does not appear that those with structural power are going to shift to equality without a huge push. We'll be talking about equality for girls and women for centuries otherwise.
Hopefully the women's march is just the beginning
We are going to need much more than a march. We are going to have to shut down the system. I wish this wasn't so!!!
has this discussion begun?
yes
How should we interpret Trump's apparent gain among minority voters in the election - is this a repudiation of the cultural left and "wokeness"?
There are some questions about the accuracy of exit polls, especially given the mail-in ballots. And Hispanics are particularly difficult to poll, as I understand it. For instance, Spanish speakers may respond less than English speakers. So some danger of putting too much weight on that narrative. But there is evidence that there was a backlash, especially in Florida, among some Hispanics to Black Lives Matter. It's an old problem, really--immigrant groups not showing solidarity with Blacks. Reminds me of the defection of Italians and other white ethnics from Democrats in wake of protests in late 60s
Unfortunately, Hispanics (particularly in Florida) were inundated with Trump’s lies in their media sources.
And the anti-abortion sentiment of Hispanic voters is something that can't be ignored...
particularly evangelical Hispanics, which I suspect is where Trump did much better. That's a population that is undercovered in the press
Yes, I don't think the mainstream media covered that enough
From my understanding, overwhelmingly black and brown folks turned out to the polls in record numbers and voted overwhelmingly for Biden. So although Trump may have had some gains with people of the color, the gains don't compare with the gains in getting people of color to the polls despite decades of voter intimidation and voter suppression in this country and the votes that went to Biden.
Good point, Rachel!
Yes, that's an important point. interesting how the arc of coverage has shifted already from Tue night when people talking about Hispanic shift in FL and TX to now, when everyone is rightly hailing Stacy Abrams and the effort of Black voters in Georgia. But Republicans deeply invested in narrative that they're gaining among people of color and among Cubans, it really does seem true
I am a mere Brit, but I thought most of the Florida Hispanics were Cuban emigres, so especially unlikely to vote for the more 'left' of the two Presidential candidates, even if the more left one wouldn't be seen as 'left' in any other circumstances!
The campaigns needed to aggressively counter those lies with competing ads.
Hi Peter, I would love to hear your thoughts on how we can aggressively combat the all the disinformation out there—disinformation that convinced half this country to re-elect a sadistic con man. I am already hearing criticism of the Democratic Party for not doing what was necessary to fully repudiate Trumpism. But, unless we can stop the GOP from utilizing the same authoritarian tactics that Trump has been using, we won’t be able to fix our broken system.
I do think it's a good sign that Facebook and Twitter began putting warnings on some of Trump's posts. They're moving in the right direction. So much depends on Fox. Really striking how their news desk is trying to play it straight while Hannity etc parrot the worst of Trump. Seems almost like a brewing civil war in there. Wonder how Murdoch responds
Perhaps when Murdoch is gone, and his son or sons take over, they will come up with a different way to be profitable. I’m hoping when Trump is no longer the president, the deleting of his lies will be even more aggressively pursued.
I don’t see a link
You're in the right place, this is the discussion page.
The debate that will dominate politics for years to come is why Trump lost but Trumpism didn’t. Why, after all this horror, weren’t Republicans vanquished up and down the line. There are two competing arguments: 1) The problem is the system: Which favors Republicans in deeply undemocratic ways. 2) The problem is the people: Who get scared when Democrats move too far left. I’m a bit more inclined to #1 but can’t totally dismiss #2. What do you think?
It is both. Anyone who watches Fox News is being fed propaganda and alternative reality. Perception is reality and being fed lies you become the consummate consumer of mis-information. TV has a way of capturing the eyeballs and where they go the primal brain follows. Many adults don't have a independent critical facility to resist the sales pitch and false narrative. I call Trump the "Merchant of Menace". See article in the Atlantic about Andy Griffith playing Lonesome Rhodes in "Face in the Crowd". This is Trump's story line except when Lonesome voiced his distain for his followers on an open mike his star plummeted. Trump can do the same with no consequence ( other than losing his re-election) but still garnering 70 million votes in the midst of a Pandemic which his incompetence and selfishness exacerbated. Trump did shoot someone on 5th Avenue and he did lose votes perhaps but gained votes to sure. Biden doesn't have to repeat Dukakis's frustration "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy" but he can't be too happy that so many of the voters still thought Trump was the better candidate.
What are your thoughts about David Brooks commentary in the NYT today? What the Voters Are Trying to Tell Us https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/opinion/trump-biden-voters.html
I think it is a combination of both.
Peter what change in USA policy towards Israel would you expect in a Biden Administration?
Biden will try to mend fences with the Palestinian leadership but I wouldn't expect any real pressure on Netanyahu because Biden will cash in all his chips trying to get Bibi to swallow a return to the Iran deal. In other words, I think Bibi will be able to continue to kill the two state solution with impunity, sadly
Peter: Looking forward to your comments. Who would chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee if Senator Coons goes to the State Dept? And who replaces Eliot Engel as Chair of House Foreign Relations Committee? Mitchell
Assuming Republicans retain Senate, I think Idaho's JIm Risch remains chairman. In race to succeed Engel, I'd guess Brad Sherman has the lead. Like Engel he's an AIPAC guy. But interestingly, he's more dovish than some other Dems on China
To everyone who got here early, thanks. I'll start the conversation with some thoughts on the recent news just before 10 EST
So glad you're doing this, Peter. I've got deadlines that take priority ... and I look forward to hearing/reading your take on election results, particularly trends in voting in Jewish and Muslim communities.
Super interested to learn more about how significant the Muslim vote was in Michigan. Striking to see exit polling showing that Jews in Florida (who are older and I suspect more orthodox) broke much more for Trump than Jews overall. Would love to see numbers on the Latin Jews in Florida.
FYI: Indiana State Senate now has first Muslim member. Fadi Qadoura is also American-Palestinian. I will email an NPR poll to you.
What’s the link?
This is it. I'm just early to arrive.
Thank you Peter! Looking forward to the discussion.
It's right here!
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