Our Zoom call this week, for paid subscribers, will be at our regular time: Friday at Noon EDT. Our guest will be Martin Indyk, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US ambassador to Israel. Indyk recently suggested that the US reconsider military aid to Israel. He’s also
This makes sense, Ran. But I wonder if Lapid and Gantz would want to bail Bibi out. Given their current advantage in the polls, maybe smarter for them to let the government fall and go to elections. And if Bibi knows that, then maybe he doesn't make a deal that could bring down his govt
My thinking is yes why not without him BUT knowing that his coalition would never accept such an offer he is likely to find a way to dismiss and disparage such an offer UNLESS he has a route to a new coalition. Gantz and Lapid may have no choice but to form a triumvirate and figure out how to jettison him later; he is not well and may be amenable to a post Saudi deal exit in triumph (sort of like a Nixonian exit). From my perspective, we are where we are because the “left” refused to cut a deal with him last year. If the opportunity presents itself again, they must swallow hard and do it to avoid further damage.
I don't understand this logic of 'we oppose peace because it would give the peacemakers political wins.' As Tyrion Lannister said, "We make peace with our enemies, not with our friends."
I think Mahmoud Abbas is a Holocaust denying Islamofascist dictator, but if he signed a peace treaty with Israel, I would be happy about it because it would mean peace, and I support peace. Same with Netanyahu and MBS. Countries don't have to have perfect leadership in order to make peace with them.
What active state of hostilities currently exists between Saudi Arabia and Israel that would be ended by a normalization agreement?
Does the idea of a Saudi nuclear program and in-house expertise on uranium enrichment that Israeli intelligence has assessed to have military dimensions sound like true peace? or another ratchet in the direction of a nuclear arms race of the region?
Do you think the Wahhabist clerics in Saudi Arabia who preach virulent Jew-hatred and wealthy Saudi oligarchs who write big checks to support the dissemination of the message far and wide are going to be constrained in any way by such agreements?
It seems to me that the Saudis abandoned the last vestiges of Nasserian pan-Arabism in favor of self-interest for good in 1991 when they turned to the Israel-aligned US against their Arab champion in Saddam Hussein.
All they have to offer anyone else politically is just an empty bag of stale symbolism at this point. Perhaps that still means something to Boomer sentimentalists like Thomas Friedman and Joe Biden, but no one else should be fooled enough to fall for it.
If Netanyahu and MBS truly want to sign an agreement of good will between the two nations, then let them sign it without either extorting the US into more morally-compromising security commitments.
That's a separate question, Paul. Do you agree with me that politicians don't need to be perfect or even good people in order to make peace with their country?
Of course that is true. Have there ever existed perfect politicians in human history? The objection is to your use of “peace” as a descriptor in this context.
I would imagine an Israeli/Saudi peace deal would also include more guaranteed access to Saudi oil for the U.S. and other western countries. When Russia invaded Ukraine a big fear or risk was the cutting off to a lot of the western world access to a reliable energy supplier. Oil dominates Middle East politics and no doubt Biden is concerned about keeping the Saudi supply line open in times of crises. Whether MBS or his successors can be relied on to honor agreements about keeping the spigots open at a fair price in times of need is another question and one that Biden and other western leaders must take into account with any prospective deal involving Saudi Arabia. As to Israel, I'm sure it will go on its merry way and not reconcile it's relationship with the Palestinians. That ship sailed a long time ago and as long as the Israeli economy stays vibrant business as usual will continue.
What Peter did not say explicitly is that the politics of USA continue to influence the lives of non Americans, specifically poor people who may not even know that USA exists.
The deal that may be made with Saudi will only benefit the royal family and not their subjects or be to their detriment. Saudi gets weapons to kill in Yemen and US oks this. The deal with Israel will only benefit the Israelis and not the Palestinians.
Lets remember that USA stepped in after the British withdrew their support for the Balfour Declaration. USA was the first country to recognize Israel minutes after its creation. Harry Truman was an antisemite. He recognized Israel to gain votes from the Jewish voters. Were it not for the US, maybe Palestine would still be intact. Trump is an antisemite but he did so much for Israel merely for political reasons.
The progressives are supporting the proxy war in Ukraine so Biden is reelected. In other words, the Ukrainians and Russians are dying so Biden and his party can gain votes over the Republicans and so the country retains hegemony over Russia and China.
This is realpolitiks at its highest. What happened to human rights advocacy that US keeps harping on? America only makes deals when it stands to gain. Its focus has never been about human rights.
The world would be better off without egotistic USA.
“This is realpolitiks at its highest. What happened to human rights advocacy that US keeps harping on? America only makes deals when it stands to gain.”
Under the doctrine of Realpolitik, the US would at least achieve some clear advancement of its national interests in the exchange.
As the writer describes, there’s no discernible and clear benefit to US interests here. Even the idea of Biden getting a foreign policy “win” for domestic political consumption going into the 2024 election is a dubious claim.
I think Rob is right about the “benefit” of Saudi oil in Biden’s eyes. After all oil prices were a huge issue in the last election. Peter’s analysis on Western influence in the Middle East vs. Eastern… that’s something Biden has unabashedly fought for.. at great cost . :(
You raise a great point! I’m no expert on oil economics, but the optics are certainly a part of American thoughts on oil (whether mislead or not). Interestingly, the Willow Project would be another example of Biden rebuffing his better judgement for oil’s sake. I couldn’t say, but I think that would be an interesting story for some journalist to dig into...Biden slapping his own morals in the face when it comes to oil. Also, as far as Saudi, they manipulate the prices, but we’re still consumers. I don’t know how American life would change without that supply chain at all. Not arguing for it, but I do think it’s on Biden’s mind.
What material support did the United States give Israel in 1948? Also, Truman was persuaded my Chaim Weizmann, who happened to be friends with him…Anti Semites do not have Jewish nationalist friends…your naive attitude towards American interests exhibits a real lack of strategic knowledge and a belief that the world always works perfectly…are you an Academic that lives in an ivory tower
Thats what u wrote . Israel was never a democracy, its an apartheid regime by definition .when you're not a democracy, you're not a democracy for all !
I think the Biden approach to the Saudis is just a last ditch effort to try to topple the current Israeli government. The premise would be give the Saudis all these gifts and then the Saudis will reach out and say they would accept Israel as is, if the West Bank is not annexed and there will be no further settlements and some promise for further negotiations plus cash for the Palestinian authority. The hope is that in Israel this will play like Egypt’s Sadat’s offer for peace in return for the Sinai. It worked then.
Will it work here? That depends on what is being offered and on how much Netanyahu misses the secular camp. That is, we know if he were even to consider the offer his coalition with the unsavory right would end. But would Lapid and Gantz be willing to step in and help him?
Lots of ifs here. I have no doubt that Lapid, Gantz and the IDF have discussed the options with the Biden administration. The question really rests on whether Netanyahu wants to take credit for the ultimate prize of pan Arab acceptance without having to concede a Palestinian state. He knows the only way for that to happen is with a different coalition.
I’m reminded of Biden’s disturbing quote from a few years back. It was something along the lines of “If Israel did not exist we [Americans] would have to create it.” Lots to unpack there in relation to this situation. Needless to say, The Cold War mentality is something I hadn’t thought of, but makes perfect sense. Whatever the case, Biden’s actions are extremely disheartening and dangerous. I’m reminded of Reagan allying with the Taliban. Another Afghanistan and Yemen is all I can think of. Very sad for what our leaders are doing.
Your couching things as “Palestinian freedom” is a jingoistic empty slogan borrowed from your buddies at the PA…think of your own way of describing things…oh I forgot you are a scholar
You making points with other academics and unrealistic woke hacks does not impress anyone…demand accountability and respect and stop pandering and condescendingly offering out of school dribble. Instead of viewing a Saudi normalization with Israel as a win for your arch-nemesis why not see it as as part of a reconciliation with a nation that has tremendous religious and geopolitical influence. Your hate for Bibi and MBS blinds you to understanding the tough choices that have to be made…also, do you really think that the Saudi’s will not get nuclear capability? If not from us than from the Chinese or India…open your eyes and look at the big picture
By the way I know even you realize that Putin is still engaged in a geostrategic battle with the west or do you think his invasion of Ukraine (that would like to join NATO) is about something else…unfortunately people like you don’t see this and don’t want to understand the consequences of regional instability…your high minded academic theories are not realistic…you have plenty of criticism but no practical solutions because not everything fits into nice sound bites
Un democratic oppression of a populace that wants to replace you with Hamas…what would you do ? Go have a Latte at Hebrew University and hand over territory to Hamas or PIJ…these are existential and difficult problems…your overly simplistic solutions are fantasies…an independent Palestine would immediately be overrun by Hamas and behave like Gaza…it’s not about 1967 it’s about 1948…your western ideals are based on your woke mindset and are a joke in the Middle East…wake up Professor
This makes sense, Ran. But I wonder if Lapid and Gantz would want to bail Bibi out. Given their current advantage in the polls, maybe smarter for them to let the government fall and go to elections. And if Bibi knows that, then maybe he doesn't make a deal that could bring down his govt
My thinking is yes why not without him BUT knowing that his coalition would never accept such an offer he is likely to find a way to dismiss and disparage such an offer UNLESS he has a route to a new coalition. Gantz and Lapid may have no choice but to form a triumvirate and figure out how to jettison him later; he is not well and may be amenable to a post Saudi deal exit in triumph (sort of like a Nixonian exit). From my perspective, we are where we are because the “left” refused to cut a deal with him last year. If the opportunity presents itself again, they must swallow hard and do it to avoid further damage.
yes, maybe Biden thinks he can force such a change
very good point, Rob. Can I reprint it in next week's newsletter?
I don't understand this logic of 'we oppose peace because it would give the peacemakers political wins.' As Tyrion Lannister said, "We make peace with our enemies, not with our friends."
I think Mahmoud Abbas is a Holocaust denying Islamofascist dictator, but if he signed a peace treaty with Israel, I would be happy about it because it would mean peace, and I support peace. Same with Netanyahu and MBS. Countries don't have to have perfect leadership in order to make peace with them.
What active state of hostilities currently exists between Saudi Arabia and Israel that would be ended by a normalization agreement?
Does the idea of a Saudi nuclear program and in-house expertise on uranium enrichment that Israeli intelligence has assessed to have military dimensions sound like true peace? or another ratchet in the direction of a nuclear arms race of the region?
Do you think the Wahhabist clerics in Saudi Arabia who preach virulent Jew-hatred and wealthy Saudi oligarchs who write big checks to support the dissemination of the message far and wide are going to be constrained in any way by such agreements?
It seems to me that the Saudis abandoned the last vestiges of Nasserian pan-Arabism in favor of self-interest for good in 1991 when they turned to the Israel-aligned US against their Arab champion in Saddam Hussein.
All they have to offer anyone else politically is just an empty bag of stale symbolism at this point. Perhaps that still means something to Boomer sentimentalists like Thomas Friedman and Joe Biden, but no one else should be fooled enough to fall for it.
If Netanyahu and MBS truly want to sign an agreement of good will between the two nations, then let them sign it without either extorting the US into more morally-compromising security commitments.
That's a separate question, Paul. Do you agree with me that politicians don't need to be perfect or even good people in order to make peace with their country?
Of course that is true. Have there ever existed perfect politicians in human history? The objection is to your use of “peace” as a descriptor in this context.
I would imagine an Israeli/Saudi peace deal would also include more guaranteed access to Saudi oil for the U.S. and other western countries. When Russia invaded Ukraine a big fear or risk was the cutting off to a lot of the western world access to a reliable energy supplier. Oil dominates Middle East politics and no doubt Biden is concerned about keeping the Saudi supply line open in times of crises. Whether MBS or his successors can be relied on to honor agreements about keeping the spigots open at a fair price in times of need is another question and one that Biden and other western leaders must take into account with any prospective deal involving Saudi Arabia. As to Israel, I'm sure it will go on its merry way and not reconcile it's relationship with the Palestinians. That ship sailed a long time ago and as long as the Israeli economy stays vibrant business as usual will continue.
Perfectly articulated.
What Peter did not say explicitly is that the politics of USA continue to influence the lives of non Americans, specifically poor people who may not even know that USA exists.
The deal that may be made with Saudi will only benefit the royal family and not their subjects or be to their detriment. Saudi gets weapons to kill in Yemen and US oks this. The deal with Israel will only benefit the Israelis and not the Palestinians.
Lets remember that USA stepped in after the British withdrew their support for the Balfour Declaration. USA was the first country to recognize Israel minutes after its creation. Harry Truman was an antisemite. He recognized Israel to gain votes from the Jewish voters. Were it not for the US, maybe Palestine would still be intact. Trump is an antisemite but he did so much for Israel merely for political reasons.
The progressives are supporting the proxy war in Ukraine so Biden is reelected. In other words, the Ukrainians and Russians are dying so Biden and his party can gain votes over the Republicans and so the country retains hegemony over Russia and China.
This is realpolitiks at its highest. What happened to human rights advocacy that US keeps harping on? America only makes deals when it stands to gain. Its focus has never been about human rights.
The world would be better off without egotistic USA.
“This is realpolitiks at its highest. What happened to human rights advocacy that US keeps harping on? America only makes deals when it stands to gain.”
Under the doctrine of Realpolitik, the US would at least achieve some clear advancement of its national interests in the exchange.
As the writer describes, there’s no discernible and clear benefit to US interests here. Even the idea of Biden getting a foreign policy “win” for domestic political consumption going into the 2024 election is a dubious claim.
I think Rob is right about the “benefit” of Saudi oil in Biden’s eyes. After all oil prices were a huge issue in the last election. Peter’s analysis on Western influence in the Middle East vs. Eastern… that’s something Biden has unabashedly fought for.. at great cost . :(
And where is there evidence that Saudi Arabia is doing us any favors regarding oil prices?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-marginally-markets-weigh-inventory-data-us-ratings-downgrade-2023-08-03/
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-2022-midterm-elections-biden-inflation-business-fa45f3023af51b1b7201f0c06d86f72d
You raise a great point! I’m no expert on oil economics, but the optics are certainly a part of American thoughts on oil (whether mislead or not). Interestingly, the Willow Project would be another example of Biden rebuffing his better judgement for oil’s sake. I couldn’t say, but I think that would be an interesting story for some journalist to dig into...Biden slapping his own morals in the face when it comes to oil. Also, as far as Saudi, they manipulate the prices, but we’re still consumers. I don’t know how American life would change without that supply chain at all. Not arguing for it, but I do think it’s on Biden’s mind.
"The deal with Israel will only benefit the Israelis and not the Palestinians."
You say that like it's a bad thing.
What material support did the United States give Israel in 1948? Also, Truman was persuaded my Chaim Weizmann, who happened to be friends with him…Anti Semites do not have Jewish nationalist friends…your naive attitude towards American interests exhibits a real lack of strategic knowledge and a belief that the world always works perfectly…are you an Academic that lives in an ivory tower
Ok, genius!
[The Washington Post] How a U.S. president known to disparage Jews became godfather of Israel
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/05/13/harry-truman-israel-antisemitic/
robust liberal democracy for Jews.
Thats what u wrote . Israel was never a democracy, its an apartheid regime by definition .when you're not a democracy, you're not a democracy for all !
I think the Biden approach to the Saudis is just a last ditch effort to try to topple the current Israeli government. The premise would be give the Saudis all these gifts and then the Saudis will reach out and say they would accept Israel as is, if the West Bank is not annexed and there will be no further settlements and some promise for further negotiations plus cash for the Palestinian authority. The hope is that in Israel this will play like Egypt’s Sadat’s offer for peace in return for the Sinai. It worked then.
Will it work here? That depends on what is being offered and on how much Netanyahu misses the secular camp. That is, we know if he were even to consider the offer his coalition with the unsavory right would end. But would Lapid and Gantz be willing to step in and help him?
Lots of ifs here. I have no doubt that Lapid, Gantz and the IDF have discussed the options with the Biden administration. The question really rests on whether Netanyahu wants to take credit for the ultimate prize of pan Arab acceptance without having to concede a Palestinian state. He knows the only way for that to happen is with a different coalition.
excellent! i agree with you, Peter. it's all very depressing.
I hope you are not an academic…because your comprehension and analysis skills are poor…you get an F-
Appreciate this breakdown. Thanks.
I’m reminded of Biden’s disturbing quote from a few years back. It was something along the lines of “If Israel did not exist we [Americans] would have to create it.” Lots to unpack there in relation to this situation. Needless to say, The Cold War mentality is something I hadn’t thought of, but makes perfect sense. Whatever the case, Biden’s actions are extremely disheartening and dangerous. I’m reminded of Reagan allying with the Taliban. Another Afghanistan and Yemen is all I can think of. Very sad for what our leaders are doing.
…that’s why most Palestinians hate Abu Mazen
Your couching things as “Palestinian freedom” is a jingoistic empty slogan borrowed from your buddies at the PA…think of your own way of describing things…oh I forgot you are a scholar
You making points with other academics and unrealistic woke hacks does not impress anyone…demand accountability and respect and stop pandering and condescendingly offering out of school dribble. Instead of viewing a Saudi normalization with Israel as a win for your arch-nemesis why not see it as as part of a reconciliation with a nation that has tremendous religious and geopolitical influence. Your hate for Bibi and MBS blinds you to understanding the tough choices that have to be made…also, do you really think that the Saudi’s will not get nuclear capability? If not from us than from the Chinese or India…open your eyes and look at the big picture
By the way I know even you realize that Putin is still engaged in a geostrategic battle with the west or do you think his invasion of Ukraine (that would like to join NATO) is about something else…unfortunately people like you don’t see this and don’t want to understand the consequences of regional instability…your high minded academic theories are not realistic…you have plenty of criticism but no practical solutions because not everything fits into nice sound bites
Un democratic oppression of a populace that wants to replace you with Hamas…what would you do ? Go have a Latte at Hebrew University and hand over territory to Hamas or PIJ…these are existential and difficult problems…your overly simplistic solutions are fantasies…an independent Palestine would immediately be overrun by Hamas and behave like Gaza…it’s not about 1967 it’s about 1948…your western ideals are based on your woke mindset and are a joke in the Middle East…wake up Professor