I really doubt that Merkel’s and Macron’s intentions were to stall for time so that Ukraine could beef up its defenses. I do however believe that the US, Canada, and the UK had that plan.
I really doubt that Merkel’s and Macron’s intentions were to stall for time so that Ukraine could beef up its defenses. I do however believe that the US, Canada, and the UK had that plan.
If Merkel and Hollande/Macron might initially have harbored some intention to have Minsk 2 implemented, they were so feckless in this regard as to be inconsequential, and soon became accessories of the "buying time" strategy.
There are unverified reports that when Macron met Putin a few days before the invasion, he told Putin that Minsk 2 was dead, but that if Russia would stand by while Kyiv carrried out a military operation to re-integrate Donbas by force, Macron would see what he could do to get some Western sanctions against Russia lifted. If so, this, together with other indications that such an operation was imminent, might have been key factors in persuading Putin and his circle to launch the invasion.
Oh, that’s interesting. Combined with Putin’s beliefs that he is entitled to parts of Ukraine, Macron telling him to standby while Kyiv re-integrates, by force, the Donbas would have horrified Putin. Could well be a tipping point.
Does Putin believe that "he is entitled to parts of Ukraine", or would he have been satisfied with the implementation of Minsk 2 (United Nations Security Council Resolution 2202 of 2015) if the West (and Kyiv) had been willing to follow through on it? Whatever one believes about this, the implementation of Minsk 2 would have provided an opportunity to test Putin's real intentions, it would have been fair to the largely ethnic-Russian population of the Donbas, and it would have been in accord with international law (UNSC 2202).
I really doubt that Merkel’s and Macron’s intentions were to stall for time so that Ukraine could beef up its defenses. I do however believe that the US, Canada, and the UK had that plan.
If Merkel and Hollande/Macron might initially have harbored some intention to have Minsk 2 implemented, they were so feckless in this regard as to be inconsequential, and soon became accessories of the "buying time" strategy.
There are unverified reports that when Macron met Putin a few days before the invasion, he told Putin that Minsk 2 was dead, but that if Russia would stand by while Kyiv carrried out a military operation to re-integrate Donbas by force, Macron would see what he could do to get some Western sanctions against Russia lifted. If so, this, together with other indications that such an operation was imminent, might have been key factors in persuading Putin and his circle to launch the invasion.
Oh, that’s interesting. Combined with Putin’s beliefs that he is entitled to parts of Ukraine, Macron telling him to standby while Kyiv re-integrates, by force, the Donbas would have horrified Putin. Could well be a tipping point.
Does Putin believe that "he is entitled to parts of Ukraine", or would he have been satisfied with the implementation of Minsk 2 (United Nations Security Council Resolution 2202 of 2015) if the West (and Kyiv) had been willing to follow through on it? Whatever one believes about this, the implementation of Minsk 2 would have provided an opportunity to test Putin's real intentions, it would have been fair to the largely ethnic-Russian population of the Donbas, and it would have been in accord with international law (UNSC 2202).